You know the saying ‘you don’t know what you don’t know?’ Well, this month I had a realization of what I have been missing over the past 7 years of studying and practicing traditional Shotokan Karate. Please, grab a cup of your favourite warm beverage (tea for me!) and join me as I unpack what may be more common than not, in us late-starter karateka. We are about to discuss something called ‘predictive reaction knowledge’!
Before I started practicing Karate, I had no fighting history at all. My fighting experience began in 2019 (as a late starter at 49 years old) when I stepped into the dojo for the very first time. I had had no overly serious childhood tousles, no bullies who shoved me around, and no negative physical altercations in adulthood. I’ve never studied another Martial Art. Sure, I’ve been involved in sports like softball, swimming, yoga and weightlifting, but nothing where my movements initiated a chain of bodily reactions in another person that I needed to anticipate. I was a blank slate coming into the dojo that summer… not knowing a single thing but eager to learn everything I could.
In contrast, many Sensei have been studying Karate since they were children. Naturally, they teach from a perspective of someone who has known how to fight for years, long before they became adults. Instructors with decades of fighting experience may sometimes be unaware of the nuances required for us older karateka to progress the way we want. I am searching for these nuances.
Closing the Gap as an Older Karateka
Over the years, I have had many ‘a-ha moments’, but I feel like the one I had a few weeks ago will enable me to grow in ways I couldn’t have before. I had this realization while I was practicing kumite (fighting). Up until now, during kumite sessions I’d been focusing on what my Sensei has been teaching me about distance, timing, counter techniques, breathing, body dynamics, stance, Kime, Kyo, Bunkai and Oyo. And there is where my problem lay.
Understanding Bunkai vs. Oyo
We often do Bunkai and Oyo drills in class, trying to figure out different uses for each technique in a kata. Both are essential concepts that have helped me understand basic physical human reactions in relation to kata techniques. Although similar in nature, they are conceptually different in several ways.
Bunkai (translated as ‘disassemble’) can be considered the formal explanation of kata movements. It includes clear teachable applications that shows what a technique does and why it exists. Its purpose is to accurately preserve the principles as they are handed down over generations. Bunkai is more about the shape of the kata and its application. Oyo is the living use of kata principles. Basically, Oyo takes a kata’s Bunkai and adapts the formal movements taking into consideration changing situations, distances, and opponents. It emphasises the practicality and effectiveness of techniques in real-life scenarios. Oyo is more about timing, intent and effect.
Simply put, Bunkai explains the kata while Oyo proves that you understand it. Because I have zero fighting experience prior to beginning karate in my 40s, the application of techniques was always a bit foreign to me. It was always something that I struggled to figure out independently. I needed my Sensei there to guide me for anything beyond the simpler techniques. I consider myself a creative person, yet I couldn’t ’create’ a fight scenario easily, it always took a fair bit of thought.
Discovering Predictive Reaction Knowledge
Then, it hit me (😊) I had never actually learned what an opponent would react like in a fight after being hit with a specific technique, or the ways that I can anticipate how to follow up after their reaction. Sure, I’ve studied this over the last 7 years, but we never really dug into this subject to the level that I needed. There are many scenarios for each fighter – and each fight. But after doing a little research (thankfully I have amazing Senseis in my life that helped me with this!) I realized that there are many predictable reactions to each type of technique. Now we’re talking!
As I read through some of the information I found, I learned that opponents would react differently in different situations (of course). But for each technique there are universal human reactions 80% of the time! This information gives me somewhere to start!
As I studied this last month, I learned it has a name – predictive reaction knowledge! Essentially, this concept means knowing how a human body typically reacts when struck, pushed, pulled or pressured in specific ways. Almost all fighters (trained or untrained) react in predictable ways when certain parts of the body are hit. By studying these common reactions, we can start predicting better follow-ups.
What Experts Like Miller and Abernethy Teach Us
The two most helpful resources that I have found so far are Rory Miller (a former corrections officer and force-of-use trainer) and Iain Abernethy (a karate instructor who is recognized internationally for his work on applying traditional kata to real-world self-defence). Mr. Miller repeatedly emphasises that ‘humans respond to sudden violence with limited, repeatable patterns driven by the nervous system. They can – flinch, cover, brace, post, freeze or surge either forward or backward.’ He argues that training should be based on these predictable reactions (Meditations on Violence, Chapters 2–4.). Iain Abernethy states that ‘kata applications rely on common habitual acts of violence and common, habitual responses’ (Bunkai-Jutsu). Now, I have somewhere to start, and I’m excited 😊
Although this knowledge usually comes from experience, older karateka lacking this intuition can speed up the learning process dramatically with structured study and the right kinds of drills. We need to catch up with those younger students!
Applying Predictive Reactions in Training
Here is a simple example of a prediction drill that I believe can really help.
Using a prediction (or tapping) drill you will work with a partner, but only at 5% power. Your opponent is encouraged to react normally, as if they were in a street fight (think Oyo).
For example, if you were practicing an arm grab, there are several ways your opponent could react. Here are 3 specific scenarios including ways we can follow up after their initial reaction:
While we absolutely need the physical experience of fighting to get comfortable with knowing how to follow up based on our opponent’s movements, knowing that these 3 responses will occur 80% of the time will help narrow down our choices and develop our fighting strategies.
I’m now a 1st kyu, in my mid fifties, preparing for my Shodan exam sometime in 2026. I hope by highlighting this subject, it can help other latecomers to realize predictive reaction knowledge is a field of study, and we can use it to help fill in some gaps that may be unique to us. There are lots of resources out there which I’ll be looking forward to studying in 2026 and beyond.
And now, off I go to dig in and learn about the piece that’s been missing from my practice since the beginning. I know I’ll be spending many hours/weeks/months with this one. It’s true what they say about studying karate ‘The deeper the study, the more there is to explore!’
A few small tips if you decide to join me in the study of predictive reaction knowledge:
1) try not to overcomplicate things,
2) learn the main reaction patterns, and then
3) the rest will come with experience.
Thanks for reading, OSS!
Renée Robichaud
Well written and insightful. It is very encouraging to see students of Karate dig deep enough to reap the benefits. Sharing perspectives like this benefits all of us, no matter how long we have been training.